Soto, A. B. (2026). Can a Golden Performance Linker Exist? A boundary obstruction, an existing architectural exception, and a reproducible comparative audit. Working paper. https://adambsoto.com/research/golden-performance-linker
Can a Golden Performance Linker Exist?
A boundary obstruction, an existing architectural exception, and a reproducible comparative audit
Executive overview
Practitioners often ask for a linker with every desirable property: exact reconciliation, period symmetry, boundary continuity, block transitivity and principled handling of compounding. This paper tests whether such a "golden" linker can exist.
For the usual design, one return-dependent coefficient per period applied to every effect, four of those requirements are incompatible once continuity covers simultaneous total-loss periods. The result is sharp but bounded: the Davies–Laker notional-fund construction escapes it by carrying extra state.
Findings, in order
- A common-coefficient impossibility. Reconciliation, permutation symmetry, block transitivity and boundary continuity cannot all hold, shown with a three-period proof.
- A genuine exception. The Davies–Laker construction carries category-level product state and escapes the common-coefficient premise.
- A correction. The claim that normalized logarithmic linking is non-transitive is corrected.
- A polynomial Shapley alternative. Its properties and limitations are proved.
- Negative results reported. An exploratory superiority screen for minimum-burden projections failed and is reported as such.
Novelty
Pins down exactly what a "golden" linker would have to give up, and where the boundary sits, with a reproducible NumPy/pandas reference and exact rational certificates.
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